Forecasting Demand
What a forecast can and cannot do at the granularity you actually staff at, and the errors that produce a bad rota from good numbers.
Analysis
Coverage is arithmetic. Allocation is judgement, and it is where the resentment actually comes from.
14 notes
What a forecast can and cannot do at the granularity you actually staff at, and the errors that produce a bad rota from good numbers.
Analysis
The data the whole rota rests on, collected once at hire and never updated in most operations.
Procedure
Every rota has undesirable slots. How they are allocated is the thing people judge the whole schedule by.
Analysis
The shift pattern with the strongest evidence against it, the clearest legal treatment, and the most persistent presence in real rotas.
Analysis
In part-time workforces the number of hours matters more than which hours, and the allocation is usually undocumented.
Analysis
The number every scheduling decision is judged against, and the four costs it does not contain.
Analysis
Fixed, rotating and fully flexible patterns, what each costs, and why the stable ones outperform in sectors that assume they cannot afford them.
Analysis
Headcount is not coverage. The certifications, keys and competencies that make a shift workable, and the single points of failure nobody has listed.
Procedure
Christmas, summer, a local event. Planning the peak far enough ahead that it does not consume the rest of the year.
Procedure
A first quarter that improves a rota without buying anything, in an order that produces results early.
Procedure
One site, a dozen people, no HR function. What still applies, what is genuinely easier, and where small operators get caught.
Analysis
Short shifts fit demand curves and cost more than they appear to. The arithmetic that is usually left out.
Analysis
Training is scheduled last, cut first, and is the reason the capability matrix never improves.
Analysis
Staffing is a service decision disguised as a cost decision, and making it explicit changes who takes it.
Analysis